Why your startup doesn't succeed when you follow Lean Startup
James Currier, at NfX, tells you the truth
Berkeley's best perk is meeting Silicon Valley legends face-to-face. Today, NFX founding partner James Currier dropped knowledge bombs at Haas that your professors won't teach. The session flipped my startup framework upside down. He told us which startup ideas to kill before we waste our lives on them.
This isn't your typical entrepreneurship lecture with pretty slides and safe advice. It's raw, unfiltered wisdom from someone who's built multiple companies.
Unlearn everything you think you know about startups.
Quick note before we dive in: This session builds on NFX's video and essay. Want to hear James’s thoughts in his own voice? Watch and read the full piece here.
https://www.nfx.com/post/technology-windows
TLDR;
Timing Is everything: Only build in markets where tech windows are opening. AI's window is wide open NOW.
Closed windows = Death trap: When tech windows close, incumbents with armies of salespeople own the market. Don't be a zombie.
Customer discovery is a waste: Don't interview users who can't see the future. No great company came from lean methodology.
Clone & improve: Find what's already working in red oceans and make 2-3 obvious improvements. Proven markets win.
Be savage, not missionary: Competitive, ruthless founders succeed. Mission statements are for big companies.
He opened with a brutal image: founders behaving like zombies. “Most founders blindly crash into walls like these zombies, never knowing if they're heading the right way.” I reminded I'd been running a zombie startup for six months.
Part 1: Technology windows
"That every technology has a limited open window on a good idea to start." He pointed to railroads — before 1880, entrepreneurs built empires and mansions. After? "Nobody built a big railroad after that. No one."
My mind raced through my previous pitch decks. ‘Marketplace for medspa’ and ‘SW for bioresearchers’ — were their tech windows really open? Probably not.
"Same thing with automobiles," he continued. Between 1928 and 2008, nobody built an interesting car company on internal combustion engines. "They all failed." Only when a new tech window opened — lithium batteries and microprocessors — did we get Tesla (maybe Rivian or not ?)
He then mapped out software evolution: ERP (1971, SAP), then nothing until browsers opened the SaaS window, now AI is creating new opportunities. "You wanna be at the beginning of these windows. Not at the end."
His warning: The Social Network movie has killed an entire generation of founders. Because that is a 2010 movie about something that happened in 2004. That dream? It's dead.
This hit me hard. Everything we see glorified in media — Facebook's movie in 2010, Uber's IPO — started 7-8 years before they became famous. By the time the public celebrates them, the tech window is already closing.
Why Tech windows slam shut
He explained why entering a closed tech window is suicide — incumbents control the entire ecosystem. "If you're trying to sell SaaS today versus in 2009, back then we had 140,000 salespeople out there competing. Now? There's somewhere between 1-1.8 million SaaS salespeople."
These armies of salespeople create an impenetrable wall. "They have a relationship with your customer, already have software installed, and want the money you're about to get," he emphasized. The moment they hear about your startup, they run to headquarters screaming for your features in their next release.
The speed of competitive response is brutal now. "Today, they'll copy your features within months. That wasn't happening in 2009. It's happening now."
Oracle has 50,000 salespeople, Microsoft 50,000, SAP 25,000, ServiceNow 16,000, Adobe 16,000.
I couldn't help but think about all the startups I've seen die trying to compete with these giants. They never had a chance — not because their product was bad or they were not smart, but because the window had closed.
When incumbents consolidate power, they don't just compete — they suffocate. They use their massive sales forces, existing customer relationships, and resources to close every gap you might exploit. This is why timing matters more than talent.
Timing is everything
What is current tech window? Still open?
"It's the first time in human history where all top 10 companies have the same number one priority. AI…If you go to VCs, 90% say AI."
Obviously, Yes.
Part 2: How to spot a winning idea
“You have a mediocre idea that will waste your life's energies, or it's in fertile soil."
Where do good ideas come from? Four sources:
Tech windows opening (as discussed earlier)
Another startup's success — You see them get product-market fit and you're jealous
Red oceans, not blue oceans — Look where competition exists
Your previous job — You see your unique view
What makes an idea truly great?
1. Built-in defensibility
Embedding: Oracle puts their software into your company, and you cannot rip it out. You will die before you rip out Oracle
Scale and brand: Very hard to get scale and brand on your seed investment
2. Simplicity “A's work for B's and C's make all the money”
The super smart people overcomplexify things. C keep it simple and make all the money."
3. Strategic cloning "Copy a lot, but not all."
Elon Musk approach:
Musk learned from his X.com failure: "Do people really want this thing? Turns out, no one did"
Now Musk never takes market risk: "I'll build a car. I'll build a rocket"
Focus on execution risk, not market risk
The golden rule: "…Bring new energy. Make two to three obvious changes, no more." Change too much and you take market risk. Change too little and you're just another clone.
Bottom line: Great ideas don't come from blue oceans. They come from cloning what works and making it better in specific ways.
Then, he took aim at everything business schools teach: "All the schools teach this lean methodology, customer discovery... to ask those who are teaching this, list for me the great companies that came from it... And they will say Zero."
"You guys are being taught to be missionary. This is a problem," he continued. "They teach you mission because mission is how large companies keep really smart people working for them. They say, we've got a mission."
Instead, he advocated for a different mindset: "We don't talk about missionary founders. We talk about competitive founders, savage founders, savvy founders... To be the real deal, you need to be competitive."
How about customer discovery?
Customers you're talking to don't see the future. They don't see the platform shift.
Breakthroughs often come from non-utilizers
Breakthroughs come from new transactions... that didn't exist before
Problem-solution thinking?
“This whole problem solution thing is also not working. Most great things come from not problem solution... What problem was Twitter, Facebook and Google solving given we had all the business?”
His message was clear: Stop following academic frameworks. Start being competitive.
Great companies don't come from customer interviews or problem statements — they come from founders who see the future and fight to make it happen and execute right now.
You have to do
Focus on the distribution and network effects for defensibility given incumbents copying other startups
Really pick the right tech window
Pick a better sector
Pick a more non-consensus idea to avoid competition
Really be better, faster, harder, more aggressive
Surround yourself with the best people in the best geographies, higher fewer people for speed
That’s all what I learned today. Hope all become a competitive, savage, savvy founder. Now, I’ll grind in the opening window.
Thanks Renzo and Vardaan for hosting this amazing event! (Both are NfX fellows)
Other good source: https://www.nfx.com/library